by Flint Adam, Nolensville resident & REALTOR®
*Note: The information below cites Williamson County sales data for Nolensville, Tennessee. There is, of course, a small percentage of Nolensville homes that exist in Davidson and Rutherford counties, but for continuity in my blogging, I reference only Williamson County statistics. Follow my Facebook page for Nolensville real estate data related to Davidson and Rutherford County addresses.
The number of homes sold in Nolensville last month slid to a November-low unseen for more than a decade. However, the cratering of home sales was coupled with mortgage interest rates declining from the 23-year highs hit during October, which should help sales rebound in the months ahead.
Only 18 home sales were recorded during November 2023, a 42% drop compared to the year before, when 31 home sales closed, and well off the November-record 62 homes sold in 2019.
The last time fewer Nolensville homes sold during the month of the turkey, it was 2011. Only 15 sales happened that November, though the town’s population was significantly smaller back then.
The extreme slowdown in home purchasing came as 30-year, fixed mortgage rates climbed through the high-7s to a peak of 8.o3% on October 19th, according to Mortgage News Daily.
However, mortgage rates began dropping sharply through the month of November, and national data shows new mortgage applications rose in recent weeks.
Housing Inventory Continues Thinning…
The number of active/available homes for purchase in Nolensville ended November at the lowest level in a year and a half. Only 59 homes were available at the end of November. May 2022 ended with 44 homes available. That month also marked the beginning of an incredible rise in inventory as interest rates quickly began rising.
We began December with a third fewer homes available for purchase than we did during the same time a year ago. Inventory typically drops further during the final month of the year, and remains somewhat low during the first quarter each year.
If this trend holds, we’ll begin 2024 with even fewer homes available than there are now. This will be an important thing to watch, because…
Mortgage Rates Are Suddenly Plummeting…
As I write this, we have had consecutive days of BIG drops in mortgage interest rates. The needle has moved almost HALF A POINT in just two days – practically unheard of.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed rate has gone from 8.03% to 6.62% in just 56 days.
This is a significant difference in payment. Based on Nolensville’s November, median home price of $959,316… and a 20% down payment… the principal + interest payment has dropped from $5,647/month to $4,911/month. That’s a payment decrease of 13% in two months!
Spring Market Could Get Competitive…
With less housing inventory, lower interest rates, and anxious buyers who are ready to get off the sidelines, the ingredients are there for the real estate market to get busy during the first quarter of 2024.
If mortgage rates continue dropping through the first quarter, my expectation is that housing demand will only increase. If we reach springtime with mortgage rates in the low-6s, there is a good chance we’ll see a very competitive real estate market return to Nolensville… and Greater Nashville.
Home sellers may be back in the driver’s seat soon. If you have a home that’s been sitting on the market, hang in there.
If you’re a prospective buyer – call me now and let’s get you in a house in the next 90 days before it gets tough out there.
November 2023 Nolensville Real Estate In Depth…
The median selling price of Nolensville homes in November dropped significantly year-over-year, but still managed to fetch the second-highest median selling price in Nolensville housing history.
Last month, the median home price in town was $959,316… an 8.63% drop from November 2022’s record-setting $1,049,900 median home price. Despite that year-over-year drop, last month’s median home price is still more than 7% higher than any other month of home sales outside of November 2022.
(Click the chart, below, to expand)
November 2023 vs. November 2022 Nolensville Home Sales:
- 18 Nolensville (Williamson Co.) homes sold… down from 31 (-41.94%)
- The median sales price was $959,316… down from $1,049,900 (-8.63%)
- The average days on market was 26… up from 16 (+10 days)
- The sales-price to list-price ratio was 98.08%… down from 99.19% (-0.44%)
- 5 of the 18 homes (28%) sold were new construction
- The lowest price sale was 2819 McCanless Road for $376,000.
- The highest price sale was 1038 Sinatra Drive in Sinatra for $1,596,797.
Deeper Dive:
- When we eliminate new construction and larger acreage properties and look solely at subdivision resales (12 total), some interesting figures come to light:
- The median sales price becomes $927,495
- The average sales-price to list-price ratio falls to 97.44%
- 2 of the 12 sales (8%) are above asking-price
- 8 of the 12 sales sold (67%) below asking-price
- Three homes sold for all-cash
- The average days on becomes 31
- 2 of the resales had a contract fall through before selling
- 5 of the resales (42%) had to price-reduce before going under contract
Williamson County Sales Stats…
November sales data across Williamson County can be found in the chart, below, but here are some interesting nuggets:
- Home prices (both average and median) declined year-over-year, but not significantly… less than 5% each
- Days on market was roughly the same
- The number of days it took a listing to go under contract was roughly the same
- Available inventory declined more than 16%
- Newly written contracts grew almost 6%
Those last two facts are significant because they speak to the continued dwindling housing supply that we are seeing. If more homes don’t list for sale soon, buyers will face increased competition soon.
Greater Nashville Sales Stats (includes Williamson Co.)…
Across Greater Nashville, overall sales dipped almost four and a half percent year-over-year, but the median home price rose slightly… from $460,000 last November to $470,495 last month. That’s just over 2% appreciation.
In Conclusion…
A lot has changed in a month. When I wrote my October recap, I was feeling pessimistic because mortgage rates remained stubbornly high, but things changed quickly.
With the 30-year, fixed rate average now back into the mid-6s… housing inventory declining… AND the market getting out of holiday mode… I can see the real estate market warming up real fast in January.
There are still wildcards – the job market and the overall economy – but the Fed’s goal of a soft landing may be possible, and a return to a frothy market is not so far-fetched a thought.
If you’re interested in buying or selling, I am at your service. My no-obligation consultations are filled with data and offer you an opportunity to speak with a local expert before you decide on your path.
Give me a call at 615-500-6393 or email me at flint@theguidehome.com and let’s chat about your goals.
Interested in up to date Nolensville TN real estate sales figures? I’ll email you an HOURLY UPDATED look at Nolensville real estate activity including what has gone pending, price-reduced, and withdrawn. Just shoot me an email with your name and preferred email address to flint@theguidehome.com
The Latest on Mortgage Rates…
12/14/2023 commentary by Mortgage News Daily
Today’s headline speaks for itself: one of the biggest 2-day drops in rates in decades. Simply put, over the past 48 hours, mortgage rates have moved lower by a larger amount than almost any other time in our records. There was a similar episode in November 2022 and only one other episode in March 2020 (which we don’t really count as “real” due to the once-in-a-lifetime market dynamics in play at the onset of the pandemic). Before that, we don’t have anything else remotely close going back to start of our intraday record-keeping in 2007.
Does any of the above tell us anything important beyond conveying the notion that rates have fallen precipitously in the past 2 days? Not really. It’s just “kinda cool.”
But here’s a milestone that can only be claimed by the present rate rally: Rates have dropped more in this 45 day window than in any other 45 day window we’ve measured. Again, our records only go back to 2007. Based on Freddie Mac’s weekly record keeping, it’s unlikely that any 45 day window will match the drop seen in May 1980.
Late 1981 is also still better than the modern record, but all 3 had several things in common. All 3 moves began with rates at the highest levels in a long time. All 3 followed a brutally quick surge to those highs. And all 3 played out as the financial market was contemplating a “pivot” in terms of inflation and the Fed’s policy response.
The pivot trade has dominated the market over the past 2 days and arguably had a lead-off that began in November. Whether or not it continues will depend on the data, but for now, the market is more willing to bet on the pivot unless countervailing data emerges.
The average 30yr fixed rate dropped nearly 0.30% yesterday and another 0.20% today. With that, the average lender is now closer to the mid-6% range for a top tier scenario (75% loan-to-value, 780+ credit score, etc).
Flint Adam is a 13- year Nolensville resident and lives in Bent Creek. He focuses his real estate practice here in town, having served almost 200 buyers and sellers in closed Nolensville real estate transactions. Flint enjoys blogging about local real estate, traveling the world, photography, and hiking. He is passionate about serving Nolensville and keeping it one of America’s greatest small towns.
