by Flint Adam, Nolensville resident & REALTOR®
The school year is over, the weather is warm, and we are in peak real estate season!
At least… we should be.
May was pretty disappointing in the number of Nolensville homes sold. In fact, only 34 home sales closed last month, making it the slowest May since 2013, when 32 homes sold.
Consider, though, how much smaller our town was back then. The only Nolensville (Williamson County) neighborhoods selling in early 2013 were Arrington Retreat, Bent Creek, Brittain Downs, Burkitt Place, Ballenger Farms, Benington, Brittain Downs, Catalina, McFarlin Woods, Nolen Park, Stonebrook, Sunset Park, Silver Stream, and Winterset Woods.
Today, there are more than twice as many neighborhoods, making last month’s sales figure even more disappointing.
This also comes on the heels of a downbeat April, with only 27 homes sold (the slowest since 2015), concluding a rather lackluster spring. Compared to combined-average, January through May sales over the prior five years, 2023 closings are down more than 32% in Nolensville.
It’s Mostly About Home Prices + Interest Rates…
The slow sales have nothing to do with interest or demand, it’s about affordability. Last month, the median sales price of a Nolensville home crossed $900,000 for only the second time, and was up 7.76% from the year before. However, we did see an end to the three months of declining, year-over-year home values in town.
Why the surge in prices? Well, just over a quarter of last month’s sales were over the $1-million mark, and another eight homes sold in the $900s. Combined, 50% of last month’s sales were over $900,000.
RealTracs MLS data shows that all of those sales were financed, though, and the majority of them went under contract during a six-week window of time when 30-year, fixed mortgage rates averaged between 6.16% and 6.75%, according to data provided by Mortgage News Daily.
Mortgage rates ended May even higher, though, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching over 7% for several days. The real estate market noticeably softens when rates climb to around 7%… but 6.5% seems to be tolerable, and the low 6s become attractive.
Housing Inventory Remains A Huge Factor…
So, how can Nolensville home prices remain so high when sales are down almost 50%, interest rates are up more than 30%, and inventory has risen 91%, from a year ago?
It’s because housing inventory, though vastly improved, remains well below historical norms. People just aren’t putting their homes up for sale like they used to.
This next chart shows us the number of new listings each month throughout Williamson County over the past five years.
2019 is arguably the last time we saw “normal” numbers… before COVID took over the world, supply chains became a mess, and interest rates dropped to historical lows.
It’s those low interest rates from the past couple years that are keeping many would-be sellers sidelined. According to Goldman Sachs, 98% of U.S. borrowers today have a below-market mortgage rate, making it less attractive to sell now. We’re seeing that here in Williamson County as 32% fewer listings came to market last month than during May 2019.
But I would argue there remain important reasons to consider selling right now:
- It’s the easiest time to sell AND buy simultaneously in the past few years. After COVID’s eruption and the ensuing real estate boom, it became very difficult to coordinate selling and buying properties simultaneously. Few sellers were willing to accept a home-sale contingent contract when other acceptable offers were readily available. Nowadays, it’s much easier to agree on contracts that allow a buyer an opportunity to sell their own home first.
- Nolensville home prices are still near their peaks, but there is no guarantee that a looming recession won’t put a dent in prices later this year. This one is really a gamble because I could see it going one of three ways: prices remain stable due to low inventory, prices drop as a recession becomes more pronounced, or prices could increase again soon as low inventory and lowering interest rates keep things competitive. I think in the near-term, price declines or price stability are the safest bets.
- You should be able to refinance to a better rate within the next two years. Yes, there will be some short-term grumbling as mortgage rates are near the highest we’ve seen in 20 years, but odds are they’ll be coming back down into the low 6s and high 5s within the next year or so. If you can secure a home purchase today, you can refinance to something more affordable down the road.
May 2023 Nolensville Real Estate In Depth…
While down slightly from April, the sale-price to list-price ratio for Nolensville’s (Williamson Co.) existing homes market-segment remains near the highest value we’ve seen since July of last year. This is a good indicator of the market’s overall health as resales typically have more wheeling and dealing than the new construction market segment.
May 2023 vs. May 2022 Nolensville Home Sales:
- 34 Nolensville (Williamson Co.) homes sold… down from 64 (-46.88%)
- The median sales price was $911,950… up from $846,278 (+7.76%)
- The average days on market was 37… up from 4 (+33 days)
- The sales-price to list-price ratio was 99.02%… down from 101.76% (-2.69%)
- 16 of the 34 homes (47%) sold were new construction
- The lowest price sale was 1130 Oak Creek Drive in Stonebrook for $500,000.
- The highest price sale was 1016 Annecy Pkwy. in Annecy for $2,090,000.
Deeper Dive:
- When we eliminate new construction and larger acreage properties and look solely at subdivision resales (18 total), some interesting figures come to light:
- The median sales price becomes $894,500
- The average sales-price to list-price ratio falls to 98.78%
- 3 of the 18 sales (17%) are above asking-price
- 9 of the 18 sales (50%) are below asking-price
- One home sold for all-cash
- The average days on becomes 13
- 0 of the resales had a contract fall through before selling
- 7 of the resales (39%) had to price-reduce before going under contract
*Note: The information above cites Williamson County sales data for Nolensville, Tennessee. There is, of course, a small percentage of Nolensville homes that exist in Davidson and Rutherford counties, but for continuity in my blogging I reference only Williamson County statistics.
Williamson County Sales Stats…
The number of single-family home sales closed in Williamson County last month dropped by almost 16% year-over-year. The median selling price was also down 0.56%. Both of these numbers are improved over April, though.
Active/available inventory, meanwhile, rose 72.06% compared to May 2022, while newly-written contracts were down almost 7%.
Greater Nashville Sales Stats (includes Williamson Co.)…
Greater Nashville housing inventory rose 60% from the year before, while the median residential sales price dropped about 3.8%. Closings were down almost 14% from the year before.
In Conclusion…
There are certainly challenges in today’s real estate market, but aren’t there always? Two years ago rates were great but it was still insanely hard to buy a house because of multiple offers and hardly any inventory. Now, we all hate the rates, but guess what? You can probably get the house you want!
Nothing stays the same, but more often than not in real estate, things get better. It may take some time, but if you’re not in the game you’re not ever going to benefit.
If you’re interested in buying or selling, let’s sit down and discuss your goals and figure out what’s possible. My no-obligation consultations are filled with data and offer you an opportunity to speak with a local expert before you decide on your path. I also serve Greater Nashville, so even if you’re not interested in Nolensville real estate, I can be of service to you anywhere in the mid-state.
Give me a call at 615-500-6393 or email me at flint@theguidehome.com and let’s chat about your goals.
Interested in up to date Nolensville TN real estate sales figures? I’ll email you an HOURLY UPDATED look at Nolensville real estate activity including what has gone pending, price-reduced, and withdrawn. Just shoot me an email with your name and preferred email address to flint@theguidehome.com
Flint Adam is a 13- year Nolensville resident and lives in Bent Creek. He focuses his real estate practice here in town, having served almost 200 buyers and sellers in closed Nolensville real estate transactions. Flint enjoys blogging about local real estate, traveling the world, photography, and hiking. He is passionate about serving Nolensville and keeping it one of America’s greatest small towns.
